Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Whether you're new to crypto or a seasoned pro, our library of educational resources will deepen your understanding of the technology that's changing the world.​​​​‌‍​‍​‍‌‍‌​‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‌‌‍‍‌‌‍‍​‍​‍​‍‍​‍​‍‌​‌‍​‌‌‍‍‌‍‍‌‌‌​‌‍‌​‍‍‌‍‍‌‌‍​‍​‍​‍​​‍​‍‌‍‍​‌​‍‌‍‌‌‌‍‌‍​‍​‍​‍‍​‍​‍‌‍‍​‌‌​‌‌​‌​​‌​​‍‍​‍​‍‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌‍‌​‌‍‍‌‌‍​‍‌‌​‌‌‍​‌​‍‍‌‍‌‌​‍‌‍​‌‌‍‌‌​‌‍​‌‍​‌‌‍​‌‍‌‌​‍‍‌‍​‌‍‌‍‌​‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‍‌‌​‌‍‌‌‌‍‍‌‌​​‍‌‍‌‌‌‍‌​‌‍‍‌‌‌​​‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‍‌​‌‍‌‌​‌‌​​‌​‍‌‍‌‌‌​‌‍‌‌‌‍‍‌‌​‌‍​‌‌‌​‌‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍​‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‌​​‌‌‍‌‍‌‍​‍​‌​​‍​​​​​‌‌​​‍‌‍‌‌​‍‌‌‍​‌‌‍​‌‍‌​​​​‍‌​‌​​​​‌‍‌‌‌‍‌‍​‍‌​‍‌​‌‍​‌‌‍​‍​‍‌‌‍‌​​​​‌‍​​​​​​‌​‍​​‌‌‍‌‍​‌‍​‍​‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌​‍‌‌​‌‍‌‌​​‌‍‌‌​‌‌​‍‌‍‌‌‌​‌‍‌‌‌‍​‌‌​‍‌‍​‌‍‍​‌​‍​‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‌‌​​‌‍​‌‌‍‌‌‍‌‌​‍‌​​‌‍​‌‌‌​‌‍‍​​‌‌‍‍​‌‍‌‌‌​‍‌‍​‍‍‌‍‌​‌‍‌‌‌​‌‍​‌​‍‌‍‍‌‌​​‌‌​‌‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍​‌‍​‍‌‍​‌‌​‌‍‌‌‌‌‌‌‌​‍‌‍​​‌‌‍‍​‌‌​‌‌​‌​​‌​​‍‌‌​​‌​​‌​‍‌‌​​‍‌​‌‍​‍‌‌​​‍‌​‌‍‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌‍‌​‌‍‍‌‌‍​‍‌‌​‌‌‍​‌​‍‍‌‍‌‌​‍‌‍​‌‌‍‌‌​‌‍​‌‍​‌‌‍​‌‍‌‌​‍‍‌‍​‌‍‌‍‌​‍‌‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‌​​‌‌‍‌‍‌‍​‍​‌​​‍​​​​​‌‌​​‍‌‍‌‌​‍‌‌‍​‌‌‍​‌‍‌​​​​‍‌​‌​​​​‌‍‌‌‌‍‌‍​‍‌​‍‌​‌‍​‌‌‍​‍​‍‌‌‍‌​​​​‌‍​​​​​​‌​‍​​‌‌‍‌‍​‌‍​‍​‌‍‌‍‌‍‌‌​‍‌‍‌‌​‌‍‌‌​​‌‍‌‌​‌‌​‍‌‍‌‌‌​‌‍‌‌‌‍​‌‌​‍‌‍​‌‍‍​‌​‍​‌‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‌‌​​‌‍​‌‌‍‌‌‍‌‌​‍‌‍‌​​‌‍​‌‌‌​‌‍‍​​‌‌‍‍​‌‍‌‌‌​‍‌‍​‍‍‌‍‌​‌‍‌‌‌​‌‍​‌​‍‌‍‍‌‌​​‌‌​‌‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍​‍‌‍‌​​‌‍‌‌‌​‍‌​‌​​‌‍‌‌‌‍​‌‌​‌‍‍‌‌‌‍‌‍‌‌​‌‌​​‌‌‌‌‍​‍‌‍​‌‍‍‌‌​‌‍‍​‌‍‌‌‌‍‌​​‍​‍‌‌

Crypto Sectors Quarterly: A Preference for Privacy
Crypto Sectors Quarterly: A Preference for Privacy

Q4 2025 marked a pause in crypto’s momentum, as markets digested earlier gains and recalibrated expectations for the year ahead. Returns were negative across all six Crypto Sectors in Q4 2025, following gains across all market segments in Q3. Crypto Sectors is our proprietary framework for organizin

November 2025: What It Takes to HODL
November 2025: What It Takes to HODL

Key Takeaways: Bitcoin investors have enjoyed high returns but have also stomached many challenging drawdowns. The ~30% drawdown since early October is in line with the historical average and the ninth meaningful pullback during the latest bull market.[1] Grayscale Research does not believe Bitcoin

October 2025: Weathering the Shutdown
October 2025: Weathering the Shutdown

Key Takeaways: The U.S. government shutdown and other macro risks were a source of market volatility in October, but innovation across the digital assets industry continued apace. The month included bipartisan negotiations in the U.S. Senate on market structure legislation, extensive investment in

Market Byte: Here Come the Altcoins
Market Byte: Here Come the Altcoins

Key Takeaways In the coming weeks, investors can anticipate a significant increase in the number of exchange-traded products (ETPs) offering exposure to “altcoins” — crypto assets with a lower market cap than Bitcoin — due to new guidance from U.S. regulators. These crypto assets represent a divers

September 2025: Cycles Don’t Die of Old Age
September 2025: Cycles Don’t Die of Old Age

Three years after the crypto market bottom there is renewed debate about the state of the “cycle”. But the factors powering adoption—macro demand for scarce digital assets and improved regulatory clarity—remain in place. Crypto trailed other asset classes in September; liquidations in futures accele

Grayscale Research Insights: Crypto Sectors in Q4 2025
Grayscale Research Insights: Crypto Sectors in Q4 2025

In Q3 2025, price returns were positive across all six Crypto Sectors, while changes in fundamentals were mixed. Crypto Sectors is our proprietary framework for organizing digital asset markets and measuring returns, developed in partnership with index provider FTSE/Russell. Bitcoin underperformed o

August 2025: The Road to Regulatory Clarity
August 2025: The Road to Regulatory Clarity

Regulatory clarity for digital assets in the U.S. has been a long time coming — and while the path ahead is still unfolding, policymakers have been making meaningful progress this year. A market focus on regulatory tailwinds has likely contributed to Ether outperformance. Ethereum is the market lead

July 2025: Ethereum Comes Alive
July 2025: Ethereum Comes Alive

The Ethereum network’s Ether token gained nearly 50% in July 2025. Investors were focused on stablecoins, tokenization, and institutional adoption — areas where the OG smart contract platform stands apart from its peers. Passage of the GENIUS Act was a watershed moment for stablecoins and the crypto

June 2025: Stablecoin Summer
June 2025: Stablecoin Summer

In a quiet month for crypto valuations, focus was on fundamentals — most importantly, the many positive developments related to stablecoins. The GENIUS Act, which would bring regulated payment stablecoins to the U.S., passed the Senate with bipartisan support and now heads to the House. Separately,

Grayscale Research Insights: Crypto Sectors in Q3 2025
Grayscale Research Insights: Crypto Sectors in Q3 2025

Grayscale Research Insights: Crypto Sectors in Q3 2025 Crypto Sectors is our proprietary framework for organizing digital asset markets and measuring returns, developed in partnership with FTSE/Russell. In Q2 2025, both price returns and changes in fundamental indicators were mixed across Crypto Sec

May 2025: U.S. Fiscal Risks Driving Bitcoin Demand
May 2025: U.S. Fiscal Risks Driving Bitcoin Demand

Bitcoin’s price reached a new all-time high in May 2025 as the one-two punch of macro demand and regulatory tailwinds continued to power the crypto bull market. Investor demand for Bitcoin stems in part from U.S. macroeconomic imbalances, including persistent fiscal deficits. While deficits are not

April 2025: Still Point in a Turning World
April 2025: Still Point in a Turning World

The introduction of new tariffs by the White House was arguably the most significant change to global trade policy in more than 50 years. Bitcoin appreciated along with other “stores of value” like gold. In our view, persistent uncertainty about government policies, the risk of stagflation, and pot

Market Byte: Tariffs, Stagflation, and Bitcoin
Market Byte: Tariffs, Stagflation, and Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price has declined since the White House announced new reciprocal tariffs, but we expect that tariffs and trade tensions will ultimately be positive for Bitcoin adoption over the medium term. First, higher tariffs contribute to stagflation, which tends to be negative for traditional asset

March 2025: Institutional Chain Reaction
March 2025: Institutional Chain Reaction

Shifts in U.S. policy on digital assets seems to have increased institutional conviction in the industry — resulting in a pickup in M&A activity, investments in stablecoins and asset tokenization, and other strategic investments in March. Crypto valuations were down slightly during the month and are

Grayscale Research Insights: Crypto Sectors in Q2 2025
Grayscale Research Insights: Crypto Sectors in Q2 2025

Crypto markets pulled back in Q1 2025, as measured by the FTSE/Grayscale Crypto Sectors family of indexes, alongside tech stocks and other risky assets. Measures of Bitcoin network activity were generally healthy in Q1. In contrast, usage of smart contract platforms declined as memecoin trading on S

February 2025: Progress, Potholes, and Opportunity
February 2025: Progress, Potholes, and Opportunity

Crypto valuations pulled back in February 2025 alongside rising macro risks and declines in technology share prices. The hack of a major crypto exchange and lower memecoin trading activity may also have weighed on the market. At the same time, the U.S. regulatory backdrop for the crypto industry con

Nasdaq 100 vs. Bitcoin: Positioning Portfolios for Growth
Nasdaq 100 vs. Bitcoin: Positioning Portfolios for Growth

Replacing a portion of portfolio allocations to Nasdaq 100 stocks with Bitcoin may allow investors to enhance returns, reduce risk without sacrificing returns, or move out the efficient frontier. The stocks in the Nasdaq 100 index and Bitcoin are distinct but complementary portfolio exposures. The N

January 2025: Remake of U.S. Crypto Policy Underway
January 2025: Remake of U.S. Crypto Policy Underway

Crypto markets continued to climb in January, although valuations pulled back over the weekend on tariff news. January also featured a whirlwind of activity that will likely have implications for the digital assets industry for the rest of 2025 and beyond. The Trump administration issued a comprehen

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