Americans View Money as Increasingly Important; Other Values Decline Source: WSJ and NORC Poll of 1,019 adults conducted March 1–13, 2023; margin of error +/–4.1 pct. pts. Prior data from WSJ/NBC News telephone polls in 2019 [1] and 1998 [2]
For better or worse, American values have changed over time, particularly with younger demographics. It appears that a confluence of factors – including the 2008 recession, the rise of social media and the internet, and a highly charged, increasingly partisan political atmosphere, among other things – has caused young Americans to have a growing sense of distrust towards institutions. This timing corresponds with an unprecedented level of income inequality and, perhaps as a result, increased levels of financial awareness and education[3] for young Americans. These trends— distrust of institutions, income inequality, and financial awareness —directly coincide with the rise of Bitcoin, in both price and mainstream adoption.
Bitcoin Price over Time
Source: CoinMetrics. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Our team has been wondering how these trends might be relevant in the upcoming 2024 American Presidential election, and this piece was designed to capture our early thoughts. First, Bitcoin is currently at its highest price in an American Presidential election cycle; Bitcoin is currently trading above $29K, whereas the previous election cycle high in Q4 2020 was ~$20K. Next, and arguably as important, the demographic that has grown to be particularly distrusting of institutions, while simultaneously concerned with their financial future, could perhaps be the most critical demographic of voters ahead of 2024. In the 2024 Presidential election, young people are projected to become the largest proportion of voters in history, with early reports noting that Millennials and Gen-Zers will comprise 44% of American voters by 2024 .
Cathie Wood and Balaji Srinivasan have called 2024 the “Bitcoin election” . Recently, in July 2023, Larry Fink claimed that “Bitcoin will transcend every international currency due to broad-based worldwide demand.” If this occurs, Bitcoin would not just be positioned as a sidenote for government officials and policy-makers, but instead as a matter of national security for America. The facts and continued maturation of the Bitcoin ecosystem seem to suggest that Bitcoin is and will continue to be more relevant to an American election than ever before. In fact, early political candidates are already starting to share positions on Bitcoin and crypto, more broadly. We’ve captured their positions in the table below.
A presidential candidate’s views on Bitcoin and crypto are important not only because the president leads the country, but also because the President is responsible for appointing the heads of more than 50 independent federal commissions that can have influence over various aspects of crypto, including the SEC, CFTC, Federal Reserve and Treasury.
2024 American Presidential Political Candidates’ Positions and/or Views on Bitcoin and Crypto-Related Topics. Candidates Polling above 5% as of July 2023 Although this is a small snapshot early in the election cycle, the above table illustrates that there are diverse viewpoints on crypto-related topics within and across political parties. For example, while former President Trump has stated his belief that “Bitcoin is a scam,” many Republican candidates strongly disagree with that sentiment. For example, Desantis, has vowed to protect Bitcoin from regulation. Ramaswamy has publicly stated that he is pro-Bitcoin because he views it as a “decentralized alternative” to the U.S. dollar, which he believes could augment the U.S.’s financial infrastructure by holding the “existing system’s feet to the fire.” Republican Francis Suarez, nicknamed the “Bitcoin Mayor”, entered the race in June 2023 after gaining notoriety for vowing to make Miami a Bitcoin hub and accepting his salary in Bitcoin . On the Democratic side, RFK Jr. similarly believes Bitcoin is a “major innovation engine,” and he is now the first major presidential candidate in history to accept Bitcoin campaign donations; he also recently claimed he would eliminate capital gains tax on Bitcoin trading[21]
Similarly, candidates’ positions on Bitcoin Mining and CBDCs have not been party-specific, but have been nuanced on both sides. For example, the Biden administration proposed a 30% tax on the cost of electricity used for Bitcoin mining while fellow Democrat RFK Jr. is staunchly against[22] any Bitcoin mining tax. On the Republican side, a core tenet of Ramaswamy’s proposal is freedom to mine Bitcoin in America. Likewise, Desantis is also opposed to the proposed 30% tax. Furthermore, incumbents like Biden and Trump are favorable towards exploring CBDCs, while Democrat RFK Jr. and Republicans Desantis, Ramaswamy, and Suarez are strongly opposed to this measure.
The increasing pro-crypto stances of Presidential candidates across political parties may reflect the idea that Bitcoin and crypto have become nonpartisan issues that members from both sides can agree upon.
Conclusion Bitcoin is decentralized. There is no Federal Reserve to change money supply. There is no CEO making decisions that can dramatically change potential outcomes. There is no gatekeeping; there are no secrets. The Bitcoin ecosystem is publicly transparent, and anyone with access to the internet can view, participate, or invest in the Bitcoin protocol. Bitcoin’s technology and overall ethos often aligns with the values of a young population that is increasingly individualistic, skeptical, and concerned about money. Bitcoin can serve American values regardless of political affiliation.
With Bitcoin’s increasing prominence over time and the significance of the young voter demographic, it will be interesting to watch how presidential candidates’ stances on crypto evolve and to see how and if they play a role in the 2024 American Presidential election. Ultimately, this is something we are keeping an eye on at Grayscale, as legislation, policy and regulation will have far-reaching implications for crypto as an asset class today, as well as America’s role in the global economy and the future of finance.
[1] WSJ/NORC poll
[2] NBC News/WSJ 1998 Poll
[3] TIAA Institute
[4] Big Village as of 7/26/24
[5] Blockworks
[6] Forbes
[7] Whitehouse.gov
[8] Cointelegraph
[9] Decrypt
[10] Cointelegraph
[11] Blockworks
[12] BBC
[13] Forbes
[14] Cointelegraph
[15] Fl.gov
[16] The Street
[17] Coindesk
[18] CBS News
[19] Pymnts
[20] Coindesk
[21] Decrypt
Article Disclosures Investments in digital assets are speculative investments that involve high degrees of risk, including a partial or total loss of invested funds. Investments in digital assets are not suitable for any investor that cannot afford loss of the entire investment.
All content is original and has been researched and produced by Grayscale Investments, LLC (“Grayscale”) unless otherwise stated herein. No part of this content may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express consent of Grayscale.
This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any investment in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change. This content does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. There is not enough information contained in this content to make an investment decision and any information contained herein should not be used as a basis for this purpose.
This content does not constitute a recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of investors.
Investors are not to construe this content as legal, tax or investment advice, and should consult their own advisors concerning an investment in digital assets. The price and value of assets referred to in this content and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance of any assets referred to herein. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments.
Certain of the statements contained herein may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on Grayscale’s views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance, or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. In addition to statements that are forward-looking by reason of context, the words “may, will, should, could, can, expects, plans, intends, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential, projected, or continue” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Grayscale assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements contained herein and you should not place undue reliance on such statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. Although Grayscale has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), expressed or implied, is made by Grayscale as to its accuracy, reliability, or completeness. You should not make any investment decisions based on these estimates and forward-looking statements.
There is no guarantee that the market conditions during the past period will be present in the future. Rather, it is most likely that the future market conditions will differ significantly from those of this past period, which could have a materially adverse impact on future returns. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. We selected the timeframe for our analysis because we believe it broadly constitutes the most complete historical dataset for the digital assets that we have chosen to analyze.
